As a rabid movie watcher, I notice trends, such as the need to make all the money a movie can in its first weekend. As such, I have developed “The Formula” for determining the final box office tally on a normal Friday-Saturday-Sunday weekend: take Friday’s total, assume the same for Sunday, and raise it 50% for Saturday. In other words, 1 + 1.5 + 1, or 3.5 times Friday’s opening numbers seems to work out to about entire weekend. This doesn’t work for holiday weekends nor will it work for “niche” films where all the fanboys rush out and see it Friday.

That said, the buzz is strong with The Dark Knight, opening at midnight tonight. I sense a minimum $150 million opening (that’s right, I said it) by close of business Sunday, so running my “formula” in reverse, Friday would have to clock in at an estimated $43 million (not including Thursday early showings) to prove me right. Am I nuts? We’ll know for sure this time on Sunday, but I’m betting I’ll already be full of myself sometime Saturday afternoon after looking at Box Office Mojo.

» Dig around in these buried remains...

• See ‘Pirates’ Early, Still Get Some Sleep 5/8/2007
• Mamma Mia! vs. Space Chimps vs. Dark Knight 7/18/2008
• Harry Potter Earns $181.4 Million Worldwide 11/21/2005
• Jessica Alba vs. Super Bowl XLII 2/1/2008
• Early ‘Cloverfield’ Reviews 1/17/2008
• ‘Eagle Eye’ Luring Moviegoers? 9/27/2008
• Collateral Scores, Box Office Loses 8/9/2004